Ok, Now I'm Officially Excited!

You've got to pick your milestones carefully! The other day, our 1,000th post, was a milestone. But over the last 14 months, since getting the van, I've been carefully watching the prices of crude oil and gasoline climb and fall slowly. Seemingly the jumps are due to far-off excuses - a car bomb in Iraq, or a refinery fire in Jersey. Of course, the price can climb 20 cents a gallon overnight, but take a long time to recover. It helps that since getting the van, I record the mileage and prices along with gasoline consumption, so a record trail exists... At left is the price of gas since driving the '05 Van off the lot last year. Some of the jumps are due to buying gas outside Tucson, which enjoys some of the lowest prices around. For instance the big peak in the center is from a couple fill-ups in Flagstaff on the way to the Canyon last June. Smaller ones are from Why, AZ on the way to Mexico and the other in Willcox on a trip to Mount Graham last Spring.

So what should be the benchmark at which time I'll feel some satisfaction at low prices? I used to compare it to the price of milk, but that too is never very stable - one of the first things the store drops to an unheard-of price for a loss-leader to get customers in to buy more expensive items. And remember too that I'm as old as dirt and remember price-war prices from the '60s where it wasn't unheard of to get gas for under 20 cents! No, something else...


Finally, it came to me - since I stop in most days at Quick Trip for my "Thirstbuster" -sized 44 oz Diet Coke to bring in to work, that was my benchmark - a gallon of Diet Coke!  Of course, it didn't help that they recently lowered the price for a gallon refill to $1.39 from $1.69, where it used to sit. I thought it would NEVER get down below $1.39, but before I knew it, it did! Just the other day I found it at $1.37, and it is still dropping, even though the price of crude oil has been stable at $30 for the last couple months, and half price from a year ago... At right is the listed price for a gallon of fountain soda, and believe it - some people bring in HUGE containers for their drinks, so know that folks buy them. I recall once at Circle K (a QT competitor) they once listed a 5-gallon container refill - likely for large thermos containers for Gatorade or sporting events...

So how low will it go? Who knows, but it is interesting that now that gas prices are low, the economic pundits are complaining on how hard low energy prices are for the economy. Well, for once I'm glad to see us keeping a few dollars in our pockets after filling up, or for the folks back east not spending their entire income on heating fuel. The low oil prices are an obvious ploy by OPEC to drive the US oil processors to collapse, which can't pump for such low prices. And I feel sorry for alternate fuels (solar, wind) which can't compete at these prices either. But you just know that they won't stay here for long and gas will be back up to $5 a gallon before you know it. All it takes is another Middle East war and the oil producers will get their wish again...